BOB HUGIN POLL TRIAL
Last year, Menendez’s federal bribery trial ended in a mistrial when the jury said it was hopelessly deadlocked on all charges against the New Jersey politician and a wealthy donor. He also questioned how Stockton weighs the advantage Democrats have over Republicans in New Jersey, based on the roughly 900,000-voter advantage that the Democratic Party has in the state. Murray, in his Twitter statement, took exception with Stockton's methodology in several ways, including what he described as under-representation of voters aged 18-29 and blacks and Latinos. "In 2012, Stockton had Senator Menendez with 52 percent, only to wind up with 59 percent en route to a 20-point victory." At the same time in the race in 20, they undercut Hillary Clinton’s statewide performance by nine points and Cory Booker’s by seven, respectively, as each won by double-digit margins," the campaign said. "The Stockton Poll historically underestimates Democratic performance this is no different. Hugin's campaign hailed the Stockton poll as evidence that voters had begun paying attention to the Republican's message and that the incumbent's appeal in the liberal Garden State is waning.īut the Menendez campaign pointed to previous elections in which Democratic candidates significantly outperformed what Stockton polls found. The Menendez camp said the senator's advertising campaign began in late August and his presence on television will continue to increase in the final month of the race. Some observers estimate he could spend up to $40 million before Nov. Hugin has spent millions of his personal wealth on television and radio advertisements, controlling the message in the Senate race over the summer months. However, with so many voters still unfamiliar with the Republican, Menendez will likely try to define his challenger in negative terms,” Klein added. “Bob Hugin has been attacking Senator Menendez on ethics with a heavy advertising campaign.
“With a two-point lead falling within the poll’s margin of error, the Senate race at this point is up for grabs,” Klein said in releasing the poll. Libertarian Murray Sabrin came in at 3 percent with an additional 8 percent of voters undecided. Stockton's survey of 531 likely voters found Menendez with a 45 to 43 percent lead over Hugin, five weeks out from the Nov. "We recognize the demographics in the poll are not entirely reflective of the population, and weight our results accordingly." Murray at Monmouth, but we stand by our poll results," executive director Michael Klein said. It just isn’t very likely.Tropical Storm Ian Forms in Caribbean, Heads Toward FloridaĪ Stockton spokeswoman said Murray's public dispute shocked polling institute officials, but the institute stood by the survey in a statement. Put another way, the model is indicating Hugin may pull off the upset. The 95% confidence on that ranges from a Menendez victory of 23 points (if everything went Menendez’s way) to a Hugin win of 6 points (if everything went Hugin’s way). how blue New Jersey usually is, the fact that Hugin has never held elected office, etc.), Menendez is favored to win by 8 percentage points. In a model I built that takes into account the polls and the fundamentals (e.g. It at least opens the door to Menendez losing re-election. In that same Quinnipiac University poll in which his net favorability rating is -19 points, his net job approval rating stood at +2 percentage points.Ī +2 net approval rating for a two-term incumbent Democratic senator still isn’t very good, however. Menendez may also benefit from voters willing to pull the lever because they like the job he is doing even if they don’t like him personally. Trump lost New Jersey by 14 points in 2016. Republican President Ronald Reagan won Nevada by 36 points in 1980. Teamsters union officials were accused of bribing Cannon.Ĭannon, though, was running in a much redder state than Menendez is this year. As with Menendez this year, Cannon suffered at the polls because of a scandal. Howard Cannon lost re-election to Chic Hecht that year. You’d have to go back to 1982 to find an example of when this wasn’t true.
They tend to lose when the President is extremely popular (like in 19). Opposition party senators running in midterms have won 96% of the time since 1982. Menendez may be disliked, but Trump is even more disliked. This is 8 points lower than Menendez’s net favorable rating. The President has a 35% approval rating to 62% disapproval rating, which makes for a net approval rating of -27 percentage points. Look at Trump’s approval rating and disapproval rating split in the same poll, though. Such a low rating would usually spell disaster for a senator running for re-election. CNN Key Races: A blue state complicates Democrats' Senate math
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